Hi elmatador,
Do you happen to have a URL for the Economist article?
In regards to their analysis, I'd throw in the views of Andy Seybold, whose "Outlook" newsletter last October predicted that for the majority of mobile phone users, a move to a slightly higher data rate from today, i.e. 2.5G (whatever that is [g]) would probably suffice for the vast majority of users. I'm trying to get a handle on the economics of these new 3G phones, and the best estimate I can come up with is that users will be paying somewhere in the neighborhood of Euro100 per month for the privelege of finding out their bio-rythmns and panicking about their new lowered net worth due to things like A, CMTO or DCTM (among the disasters du jour). I just don't think that there is going to be a huge market for these services, much as the Mobile Satellite Systems have suffered from a distinct lack of customers.
So for the great bulk of users, I'd think that GPRS and the sort of enhancements envisioned in the EDGE vision are going to be where the industry is headed for the foreseeable future. Only if I can see the average monthly bill for 3G approaching Euro50 will I feel convinced of its market success.
3G, to me, represents the classic case of the technologists creating a solution in search of a problem to solve.
Best, Ray |
