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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (46471)7/21/2000 6:10:09 PM
From: Doppler  Read Replies (1) of 63513
 
I see both positives and negatives here. It does have many of the classic CnH attributes but there are a few things missing. One is the length of time. Usually a good CnH takes 7 weeks or longer to establish itself and base. This one has been 4 1/2 or so. Shorter duration ones often fail after the breakout. Volume a couple of days ago when it approached 70 was up, as it should have been. Yesterday's high was on good volume, but not nearly what it did the last leg up which isn't as good a sign. Handles usually take a couple of weeks to resolve themselves and break lows as they go (a shakeout of sorts). We haven't seen that here yet.

Regular TA is more mixed. OBV has been very good lately. With today's drop though it has a classic b-band pattern for a downturn. It is also overbought at many different time scales and it's RSI, while not losing ground as quickly as some others, is getting lower with higher prices. That isn't good.

I guess to summarize, PnF would have a move above 70 as very positive. That corresponds nicely with the opitmal buy point on the CnH. If it breaks 70 1/8 on heavy volume that would be the breakout you are looking for. Like I said though, the stats I have read show a much higher failure rate for a CnH breakout under 7 or 8 weeks. Hope that helps.

Jeff
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