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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: fedhead who wrote (5149)	7/21/2000 8:26:16 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 436258

Anindo, while there have been phases (e.g. '97 - '98 most recently) during which the NAZ managed to rally without the SOX, i think you're right that a SOX decline would be bad for the tech sector in general this time. reason: too many things are connected with it...PC's, wireless... also, i believe that this latest rally in the NAZ was indeed a bear market rally. if it follows the pattern that i think it will follow, things could get real nasty this fall, as wave 3 or C kicks in for this index as a whole. other indices have a slightly different count, but the Dow seems also poised for a wave 3, and third waves enjoy broad participation. if they are down waves, they are best described as emotional selling frenzies. assuming that my assessment is correct (the market could act contrary to this expectation and help me change my mind of course), we could see the indices fall to levels not seen in a long time... i see numerous warning signs, and i find it frankly astonishing that the so-called 'experts' that pontificate on TV refuse to see them and are almost unanimous in their bullishness. of course, after the fact they will all have expected it, lol. i don't know if you have seen the Russell interview above, i pretty much hold the same views. i'm going to post a detailed update (the market according to me) on MDD over the weekend...i'm going to try and work out likely targets for the indices as well. lengthy cautionary pieces penned by me are the best chance the market usually gets to produce a rally...-g-

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