DlphcOracl...
Thought you might be interested in this as it relates to most of the chippers you mentioned. As you can see the front-end orders actually went up for AMAT, KLAC, etc. Since all we have heard recently from the analysts @ SSB and ML is doom and gloom (end of cycle) for the semis. The analysts sure did do their job bringing the semis back down to attractive levels.
I suspect, next week or next month... the media and analyst will suddenly discover the strong front-end and the chippers will rebound hard. My favorites are LSI, AMD, ADI, NSM, ATML, XLNX.
Regards,
Saltheart
From Merrill Lynch Investment Highlights:
• The semiconductor capital equipment book-to-bill for the US preliminary results came out at
1.26 down slightly from 1.28 in May. The ratio declined more from an acceleration in shipments
than from slowing orders.
• Overall orders grew 1% month to month and 17% quarter to quarter. Shipments slowed to 3%
growth month to month but grew 28% quarter to quarter versus 9% growth in the first quarter.
• Front-end (AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS …) orders were strongest up 5% month to month
for an increase in book-to-bill from 1.28 to 1.32. Front end orders actually accelerated from 2%
growth in May. Front-end orders growth rate also increased year over year from 76% in May to
83% in June.
• Back-end (TER, KLIC, CMOS …) orders were down 10% month to monthfor a book-to-bill
decrease from 1.28 to 1.09. This was in-line withTeradyne’s recent results of a book-to-bill of
1.09.
• The slowing in overall order rates has been well expected as month to month and quarter to
quarter comparison have become much more difficult. Investors should be aware that the absolute
trend of orders is a much stronger indicator of stock direction than changes in growth rates. The
stocks have taken a significant correction with the average P/E dropping to l8x 2001 from the peak of 30x at the end of the first quarter.
We believe this presents a buying opportunity as the outlook is for continued order growth in the
second half and beyond.
Bulletin
United States
Semiconductor Capital Equipment
21 July 2000
Brett Hodess |
