Don, I am curious as to your longer term reads. My weekly signals are pretty much bearish across the board with a few buys and a couple mid range but mostly I am on heavy hard sell signals. My short term stuff is also pretty much in line with yours but I am having a hard time this morning trying to target my buys long when I have weekly signals telling me to stay short or out.
I have daily short term buys or over solds on SFA, GTW, WCOM, BGEN, QLGC, AMAT (weekly), RFMD(weekly), XOM(weekly), but I have hard sells on IBM, then all on weekly sells are NASDAQ, OEX, SPX, R2K, GTW, INTC, DELL, NVLS, AAPL, FLEX, CSCO, WCOM, AOL, MU, WCII, QLGC, COMS, PMCS, FDX, BRCM etc.
I will have to spend some more time sorting this all out and checking sector indexes but my initial take is we could have a one two day rally then resume the down turn.
I originally wasn't looking for too big a drop for another couple weeks but the drop last week was enough to turn the Mo Mo south which triggered my system into sell mode.
This is a fairly new system but it back tested very well and is the one that said to sell MSFT short even though I thought the chart looked like a possible bull flag last weekend. ( The computer won the bet -gggg-)
I have to admit it is a tough call since NASDAQ 4K was my target for this down turn and we are close enough to say it has been met in my book so now we are basically starting with a clean slate.
I read some good stuff last night about how semi equips tend to top out first, then the Semis top out then the rest of the techs follow later. While it is still too early to call them dead, the Semi equips have made a numerous separate attempts to rally and have failed making lower lows on each attempt. We could be getting more than we asked for here if this is indeed a trend developing with the rest of the techs about to follow. So far, there isn't much strength with the exception of a few internets that may be forming bull flags and that haven't dropped too hard on this pullback and the stocks mentioned earlier like SUNW, EMC and then a few others like SANM, FLEX etc. Without the leadership of the CSCO, MSFTs etc. it may be hard to rally with enough strength to get too high before the fall weakness arrives to take us down again.
I get e-mail alerts to various hot spots each evening and while many of them are more related to military concerns, one caught my eye last week. Apparently Russia is in heavy financial problems again and is walking a tight rope with obstacles coming up in a few months. They may have to declare their dirty laundry come August/September and I am thinking that this could be the spark for the annual fall drop we seem to be able to set our calendars to. -ggg-
Good Luck,
Lee |
