NOK also under time pressure due to the projected rapiod fall off in phone sales growth unless 3G brings kipper aps soon,
JohnG
Worldwide Cellular/PCS Subscriber Growth Slowing After 1999 Peak, Says The Strategis Group
individual.com.
July 21, 2000
By 2007 Western Europe Will Be Largest
3G Market
WASHINGTON, July 20 /PRNewswire/ --
The year 1999 marked the peak of the
spectacular growth in the global
cellular/PCS subscriber market, according to
a new study released by The Strategis
Group. After rising to 54 percent growth
annually worldwide, growth levels are
expected to slow significantly through 2007,
especially in mature markets, The Strategis
Group predicts in its report World
Cellular/PCS and 3G Markets.
"Worldwide cellular/PCS subscribers
increased rapidly from 1993 to a peak in
1999. Fueling that rise was the start of
cellular service in emerging markets and
continued expansion of the cellular/PCS
subscriber base in mature markets, notably
the United States, Western Europe and
Japan," said Ayse Ozgur Aytar, study author
and analyst with The Strategis Group.
Growth in Cellular/PCS and 3G Subscribers
Projected to Ease in the Coming Years
Year-End Percent Growth
1997 50%
1998 47.9%
1999 54.4%
2000 31.6%
2001 20.2%
2002 14.6%
2003 12%
2004 10.1%
2005 8.8%
2006 8.3%
2007 7.9%
Source: The Strategis Group, Inc.
While growth is slowing, The Strategis
Group forecasts that total cellular/PCS and
third generation (3G) subscribers will
continue to rise, growing from about 530
million in the first quarter of 2000 to over
1.37 billion by year-end 2007.
The study, now in its eighth edition, also
found that certain factors in today's
cellular/PCS market will boost total revenue
levels. These include increasingly open and
competitive markets, demand for new
value-added services, especially wireless
e-mail and Internet, brand awareness,
fixed-line competitive service pricing and
operators' new distribution strategies. The
report projects worldwide service revenue to
reach $295 billion by year-end 2000 and
nearly double to $521 billion by the end of
the forecast period.
The Strategis Group report also provides an
overview of 3G wireless, the outlook for
early 3G deployment strongest in western
Europe and the Asia- Pacific region. The
Strategis Group expects 14 markets in
western Europe and seven markets in Asia
Pacific to commercially launch 3G services
by 2003, well ahead of the rest of the world.
The study also projects that by 2007,
Western Europe will be the largest 3G
market, making up 56 percent of the total
3G subscriber base. At that time, Asia
Pacific will account for 34 percent of the 3G
worldwide market.
While U.S. cellular operators are beginning
to roll out wireless Internet service
offerings, the push for 3G in the United
States is not as strong as it is in Western
Europe or Asia. Licensing is not being
mandated on a regulatory basis in the U.S.,
and operators are not yet convinced that
consumer demand would justify the
tremendous investment required to build
out a 3G network. As operators migrate to
2.5G service offerings, the next year will be
critical in determining how serious U.S.
operators are about rolling out 3G, The
Strategis Group says.
The Strategis Group publishes in-depth
industry research reports, provides
customized consulting services and supplies
continuous information solutions to the
cable TV, satellite, Internet, competitive
telephony, broadband and wireless
communications industries. For sales
inquiries, please contact an account
executive at 202-530-7500 (voice),
202-530-7550 (fax), or at
sales@StrategisGroup.com (e-mail).
SOURCE The Strategis Group
CONTACT: Ayse Ozgur Aytar of The
Strategis Group, 202-530-7606 or
oaytar@StrategisGroup.com
Web site: strategisgroup.com |
