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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: TimF who wrote (120686)7/22/2000 2:16:16 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (1) of 1576744
 
Tim, catching this BTB discussion in the middle, but I think fact that the rate of declline in the BTB has slowed to a crawl augers well for the BTB actually rising in a month or two.

I forget the exact numbers, but the change in the BTB was something like -0.10, -0.06, -0.02 for the last 3 months. Since the numbers are 3 month moving averages, the actual peak in the monthly BTB was about 4-5 months ago.

If it takes 3 months to fill an order for semi equipment, a rapid rise in bookings results in a rapid rise in billings three months later. This rise is what caused the BTB to decline, not a decline in bookings. A more moderate rise in billings will also soon be upon us, and then the BTB will rise to equal its actual 3 month growth rate in bookings.

Petz
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