The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

VTI 330.06

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (437)	7/22/2000 3:13:29 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 10065

Micahel: Everybody says the cycle has two or so years to go. Well, the cycle may have some time to go but the issue for investors is whether the prices in these issues have peaked in terms of price. These two issues can be distinct issues. You can have a strong business (excess 1:1 btb) but still have peaked in terms of price because the market had run up on the basis of stronger bookings previously. Re: "What would you rather have 1.46 in a 10 month cycle or $1.26 in a five month." Doen't matter what I think. The market seems to prefer the former as it has run up on that basis and, no matter what anyone says, investors are selling on strength here and will do so until enough investors step up and take your side and stabilize the fall. Re: "The market is blowing smoke based on unwarranted fears." Market is always looking forward while you are reading today's headlines. That is the reason for the cognitive dissonance all over SI on the chips. The business is great so why are the prices declining?? Market is looking forward and there are many big investors cashing out by looking and projecting forward. You may be able to do a trade in the topping pattern process but you do so at your own risk. What you are betting on is that there are more investors willing to take on your perception at some point going forward but I would bet that this point will be transitory at best and will be met with new selling pressure. Re: "SOX will come back after a few more volatile sessions." My "VVV" topping pattern as posted here in mid June before actually showing itself on the charts is in effect. The Sox may well come back to the top of that "V" and back down again and back up again but the resolution of that pattern should not be favorable eventually. Your job is to get out before an unfavorable resolution or be prepared to ride out the eventual substantial decline.

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