from Yahoo:
Overall, I think ALSC's guidance going forward is extremely conservative. They do not forecast increasing margins, though rising ASP's and improved production yields would naturally increase them. Similarly, the company gave guidance of 20%+ revenues going forward. But if they already have a backlog of $60 million to be delivered in the Sep quarter, that implies a revenue increase of at least 26.6% (60/47.4 million).
What this suggests is lots of upside to the current estimates. If ALSC is very speedy in getting its new chips into production, the 3Q numbers will be eye-popping.
One item on shares outstanding and the buyback. My understanding is that the 1 million shares purchased were not during the quarter but cumulative over the whole share buyback program. I believe they bought something like 300,000 during the Jun quarter.
Hopefully, ALSC will be looking closely at the relative values of their portfolio stocks to their own stock. As long as the relative value of ALSC is much greater than BRCM, VTSS or PMCS, selling portfolio stock and buying company stock makes sense.
While most eyes are shifting between the short-term prospects for the Sep quarter and trying to time the peak of the semi cycle, it is sometimes useful to look longer term. ALSC is one of the best positioned semi stocks to be able to strengthen its position going through the semi down cycle. The company will have bundles of liquid assets and relatively few fixed assets. That is the ideal position to be in when the slowdown comes. ALSC will be able to minimize its fixed costs and buy and develop semi assets on the cheap. Then during the following semi upcycle, the company will soar.
I realize this kind of long-term perspective may not be fashionable, but I think it provides a useful perspective.
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