DelphcOrcl wrote:
[At present, that is not happening. QCOM's plight is identical to Rambus -- until there is clear-cut evidence that CDMA is rapidly gaining market share outside the US, it will be range-bound between 55-80 (IMO)]
Obviously, I should read ahead to see if anyone addressed this issue, but I have to assume you are only talking stock price being held at bay and not in any way trying to compare the technology adoption life cycles and IPR of either company being in the same situation at any given time in history.
Rambus? Gee, anyone who was willing to sit on their shares for a measly little 6 to 8 months after Intel delayed their boards or whatever the heck happened (I've forgotten at this point) were rewarded quite well. Maybe that's too long term for you, I don't know. $60 some odd dollars a share to $400 and nose bleed before anyone could get their belts fastened.
[I would prefer to park my money in stocks that are dominating their space, with quarter after quarter of rapid growth, in sectors that are rapidly expanding. Some of these stocks can be held for 1-2 years, others will be held for 6-12 months.]
I agree with you having stocks that are marching on quarter after quarter with tremendous growth, dominating their space and are in hypergrowth sectors are a 'must' portion of my portfolio. So are the cash printing companies like some of our more mature gorillas such as Intel, Cisco and Oracle. However, some of those young hypergrowth companies that I am thinking of are exactly the kinds of candidates in gorilla games that I want to park my money for more than 6 months to two years. Qualcomm is an 'obvious' choice for gorilla gamers who are willing to let the events unfold over the next few years and are willing to let management execute during that time frame.
Good grief, what an investing sin to have sold Cisco after a couple of years of hypergrowth in the early days! 168,000% return to date since the IPO. That wasn't accomplished by early investors through chase and tax, chase and tax, chase and tax, chase and tax. It's a stock we all dream about having owned from day one. The power of compounding in a few great investments using gorilla game strategy or strong royalty position has proven in the past to beat the chase and tax strategy quite easily with out having to always be hopping in and out of the latest hot thing.
Obviously, different strategies work for different folks, but gorilla gaming is not a short term strategy. Cisco didn't do it overnight. Microsoft didn't do it overnight. Intel didn't do it overnight. Oracle didn't do it overnight. EMC didn't do it overnight. Sun didn't do it overnight. Siebel isn't doing it overnight. i2 isn't doing it overnight. Gemstar isn't doing it overnight. Network Appliance isn't doing it overnight. Brocade isn't doing it overnight. Broadcom isn't doing it overnight. Did any of those companies do it in 6 months? 12 months?
I forget to ask, have you read the books "Chasm" and "Tornado"? Quality reading in my opinion about the time frames required for gorilla game investing.
Did anybody say Qualcomm was going to do it overnight?
BB |
