Brinker told his subscribers to go 100% cash in January of this year. He was a few months early on timing the peak in the Naz by about 2 mos.
Considering where the Naz is today and where the Naz was when Brinker made his call, it's almost a zero sum game. His listeners did not gain anything by getting out unless the they were fully invested in dot.coms.
Since January, may sectors are actually higher, i.e. drugs, selective techs, and therefore I don't see what all the bragging is about. If you listen to his show, he may come across as somewhat arrogant IMO.
More recently, on the last weekend in May, he told his listeners to buy QQQ on the last Monday in May for a bear market trade. That was actually the start of this leg up in the markets and now his listeners think he is GOD.
I actually went to a 130% JDSU position around that time at $75 but I'm not calling myself GOD, it was alot of luck, guts and maybe even stupidity, but it worked.
Even Cramer attributed the strong Naz move partly due to Brinker's call and therefore I think he has gotten some respect from certain investment pros. But it seems to be getting to his head and his listeners now have blind-faith in him.
You can bet they will all be stampeding for the exits when he yells "fire". He will make his "exit call" on his weekly radio/net broadcast show no later than the end of August. As of this morning, his QQQ trade is still long.
Brinker is calling for a top in the Naz at about 4300-4400 and then a bear market that could possibly last until 2002, that's not a mistake, 2002. This morning one of his listeners asked why mutual fund managers are still bullish, Brinker's reply was that fund managers want you to keep putting money into funds so they have to be bullish, he says that he's not a money manager so he doesn't have to be.
Brinker is what you might call "old school". High valuations is something he repeatedly mentions as one of the reasons he is so bearish. It's not like we haven't heard this argument from others before.
If his bear market call does not pan out, and my money is betting that it won't, you can bet he will become Elaine Garzarelli's best friend. If you recall, the Garz called for a 1000 pt decline in the Dow about 4 or 5 years ago when the Dow was about 4500. We all know how good that call was. |
