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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: RR who wrote (26306)7/23/2000 10:10:28 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 35685
 
for an interesting possible glimpse into the next few months...

try looking at a chart of the Dow in 1994-95
compare it to a chart of the Dow in 2000
it is almost exactly alike, with springtime painful decline, unsure summer, midsummer breakout with no conviction... in 1994 we saw a strange short cover rally, the fire for which was lit by Loomis Sayles in the final days of August after no serious Aug hiatus decline at all... a final Fed rate hike then led to a sudden shorterm reversal in November... once that final hike was digested, it was off to the races for the biggest single year in 1995... Dow went past 4000 and proceeded to 6000 that year

different factors were involved late in the year as we turned the corner... NAFTA was signed, then a Mexico bailout was signed, both in Jan/Feb95 timeframe... commodity prices for stuff like crude oil were all very low, as we emerged from a true recession, one that booted me out of a job at Digital after 13 years... that broke my heart

I dont claim to know anything... but 1994 and 2000 have countless parallels... if history repeats itself, we could see the Dow matching the springtime highs by September... back in 1994 the Naz was just a little sister who mimicked the Dow... this year it clearly enjoyed a debutante ball in March, making a loud statement as to its own identity

off on my trip, good luck to all
/ Jim
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