Fun Loving Clowns - Laughing All The Way To The Bank Message Board

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Pastimes : Fun Loving Clowns - Laughing All The Way To The Bank

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To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (13)	7/23/2000 12:32:57 PM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Read Replies (2) of 28

Three Options On The NASDAQ Till September Kicks In. OPTION 1 : Go to cash and go on vacation. OPTION 2 : Position Trade up/down with a bearish influence. OPTION 3 : DayTrade it on select stocks on select days. This market will be on a defensive stance till the August 22 FOMC meeting.We may see a number of bullish days,but the trend looks weak to the downside overall and volume is bound to decline between now and the 22nd.This gives us 20 days of market time for the one step forward-- two steps back scenario that I envision. There is little--if anything - that can juice this market,other than juicing itself by the second stringers still left in their offices on Wall Street.If ANYTHING, we may see one more small run to the COMPX 4300 - 4400 level that will be short lived and turn on a dime.If I were to take a definitive short position,that would be my signal. I expect oil to get cheaper during this period as well as signs of consumer confidence fading slightly and housing starts continue to decline.Core Inflation will level off soon also,along with labour tightness,setting up the FOMC meeting to pass once again on a rate increase,with the usual warnings to keep the bulls from running amok in the China Shoppe. This will set an upward trend reversal that should last well into October earnings season,where the annual skittish behaviour takes over and volatility reigns supreme.A successful breeze though October will set up the next leg of the rally to continue into the elections and beyond. A SHARP market decline in October will be met with an interest rate decrease.....politics be damned.It is the FED's job to manage the economy--not kill it for the sake of meeting empirical numbers produced in conjunction with the seven wonders of the world -- the G7. So there we have it ---my three month forecast and your options based on that forecast in the short term. What am I doing? I choose option 1 early last week and went to cash.If we get the mini-rally I will short it,otherwise stay in cash till the 22nd of Aug. meeting. ready to take a position -- or not, having enjoyed the vacation time. Remember -- preservation of capital and/or capital gains is as important as capital gains themselves.That may sound a little chicken sht to some -- but it works for me.I have been decidedly bullish since mid May, and only now find myself on the defensive.I told the clown thread ( the one where you could take an opposing position and be abused, but at least not banned ) that I would let them know when I became negative on the market.Well for all those that exist in their little world of wondrous catastrophic predictions, there you have it.Clown suit and all…… I’M ON VACATION!! YEEEHAWWW!!*

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