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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread
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To: StillHolding who wrote (3483)7/23/2000 4:18:24 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 30051
 
Still holding, my opinion about a three years hold is strongly influenced by my (FA) belief that next year will be murder for long termers. Stocks like JDSU, SNDK, SSTI may go down sharply and then up sharply. In the case of JDSU, I like the current technicals, but frankly, paying $150 B (adding the SDLI acquisition) for $2.5 B in sales a year or two down the road is not going to sit well in a bear market. I believe that at the nadir of a future bear market, JDSU may sell at 30% of its current value (in the $40' or so and still be valued at more than 10 times the then current yearly sales). I would sell on rallies like the one we have right now. The trick is to decide where is the peak. he other trick is that what I wrote above may not come to pass and JDSU may end up with a market cap of half a trillion bucks (like CSCO was a short time ago).

I would sell some right here in the $130 to $140 area, and if it breaks to a new high above $150, wait with the rest to just under $200.

Zeev
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