Bob Brinker and Don Hays -- two of the best timers around -- nw have virtually identical forecasts. Some more rally ahead, but not a heck of a lot. Brinker expects NAZ to top around 4300-4400 next month before a major move DOWN. Hays talking the same way:
From Prudent Bear Bear chat site:
Ok, I listened to some Bob Brinker today. You might remember that he called this summer rally
correctly. He says that sometime between the end of July and the end of August, he will be giving
the signal to close out the QQQ rally trade. At that time, he expects the market to roll over again.
As you might recall, he called the top in Jan, and greatly reduced his participation in the market at
that time. He is now saying that every day makes it appear less and less likely that he will return to
a fully invested position this year, and continues to repeat that preserving capital is the name of the
game. He says that he continues to be amazed at the level of complacency among investors and
urges them to consider that in addition to return, the market also has risk.
He says his expectation is that sometime between the end of July and the end of August the
nasdaq will top in the 4300's or 4400's. Also, he sees a second chance to get out of the market now
with the s&p anywhere between 1469 and 1527. He said that last week with the s&p at 1510, it was
within 1% of 1527, so that was a good point to get out but anywhere in this range is good. Other
than that, wait until he gives his sell on the QQQ.
He says he recommended the QQQ for the summer rally because individual stocks are a minefield
and are liable to get shot for any signs of weakness.
Finally, he said that the 6 month rate of change of M2 on an annualized basis and adjusted by
inflation growth rate is 1.3%, dramatically lower than a year ago, and that m3 on the same basis
was down to 3.3% from 6.6% of a year ago. |
