To me, there is a very simple, rational explanation.
Basically, investors are thinking, "Wow, that was a blowout quarter KLIC just had. But gee, I'm kind of worried the top of the cycle may be approaching. Maybe KLIC will continue to have 1 or 2 more record quarters, but the end might be approaching, and I better get out while I can. I stuck around too long on the last cycle and I'm not going to be the last one on the sinking ship for this cycle."
Now, whether the top occurs within 6 months, or 2 years is completely irrelevant. No one knows. Not the analysts. Not the insiders. Not investors.
What does matter is right now a lot of investors think the top might be sooner rather than later.
So the only way KLIC and the rest of the semis are going to pull up again is to turn investor sentiment around. Not an easy task.
The current sellers aren't being irrational. For whatever reason, they think the cycle top is approaching, so they're getting out. If that's what one believes, then it's very rational to sell. You can't fault them for that.
If you can fault the current sellers, it's that they might be wrong thinking the top is approaching.
If the top really does come in calendar year 2000, then these investors would have done the right thing. If not, then they miss out. They are just acting on their beliefs. I did the same thing when I got out several months ago. |
