Here is the WSJ's spin on things.
John
U.S. Personal-Computer Sales
Slowed During Second Quarter
By DAVID P. HAMILTON
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
U.S. personal-computer demand slowed markedly during the second quarter, potentially heralding the maturation of the U.S. market, although strong overseas sales buoyed major vendors such as Dell Computer Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co.
Two reports from market-research firms due out Monday suggest that PC sales in the U.S. have slowed considerably since the beginning of the year. According to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group based in San Jose, Calif., sales in the U.S. market grew only 12% in the quarter from a year earlier, compared with world-wide growth of 18%.
International Data Corp., of Framingham, Mass., was even more pessimistic, showing U.S. unit-shipment growth at 7% versus 15% world-wide. That's down from 15% U.S. unit-shipment growth in the first quarter versus a year earlier and 17% U.S. unit-shipment growth in the fourth quarter of 1999. Data from the two firms often differ slightly because they use different methodologies.
While the second quarter is usually sluggish, falling as it does between the Christmas and back-to-school buying seasons, the results still provide the first clear sign that last year's torrid pace of PC sales might have been a fluke. Spurred by rock-bottom prices and a profusion of "free-PC" deals in which consumers could get a free machine in exchange for a long-term Internet contract, PC sales in the U.S. jumped 29% in the second quarter of 1999, according to Dataquest.
With PC prices edging back up and many of the free-PC deals falling by the wayside, consumers aren't nearly so eager to jump into the market these days. Add the fact that corporate PC purchases also decelerated in the same period, some analysts think the U.S. PC market may be in for an extended slowdown.
"The markets that low-cost PCs opened have filled quite quickly," said Charles Smulders, a Dataquest analyst who calls the so-called saturation of the U.S. market "a problem that will not go away."
IDC analyst Anne Bui also thinks the consumer PC market isn't likely to pick up very much in the U.S., although she disagrees with Mr. Smulders over the seriousness of the situation. Noting that only about 52% of U.S. households currently own at least one PC, "there is definitely still a lot of room for growth," she said.
Both analysts also agree that corporate PC buying should pick up steam later in the year as more businesses commit to PCs with Microsoft Corp's new Windows 2000 operating system.
On a world-wide basis, both Dell and H-P continued to boost their market share. Dell, which globally still ranks second behind Compaq Computer Corp., saw its share rise to 11.5% from 10.7% a year earlier, while H-P, ranked third, rose to 7.5% from 6.4%, according to IDC.
Compaq, by contrast, saw its share slip by more than a full point, although it held onto its No. 1 position world-wide. Fourth-ranked International Business Machines Corp., however, saw its actual unit shipments drop 4%, and its market share decline to 7.5% from 8.9% a year earlier.
Write to David P. Hamilton at david.hamilton |
