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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 228.23-2.9%10:45 AM EST

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To: Tony Viola who wrote (36012)7/24/2000 6:41:32 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Tony, you said >Just another piece of evidence that's it's nearly over, huh?<

You probably mean the increases of SEMI equipment orders are not over. I agree with that. But price increases of the stocks, that's another matter. EVERYONE must know by now that these stock prices are cyclical and just maybe enough investors think "this time I'll get out early". There may
be a few clueless investors out there who don't know about the price cycles, but I doubt they carry that much weight.

In summation: even if we knew ALL about the future ORDERS
cycle we'd still be ignorant about how the bulk of investors
will play it. I don't accept any more that rising orders
guarantee rising stock prices, even though that has been
seen in the past.

Gottfried
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