John,
Re: Merrill cut revenue estimates on Dell today
The revenue cut sort of reminds me of the February 1999 revenue cut. Dell still has not recovered form that. The board can crunch the numbers till their blue; the can parse the words of management; they can look at photos all night long. The irrefutable fact is that unless you traded the fluctuations, DELL's stock price has been a dog for 18 months. If DELL grows earnings 30%, and, as some say, WILL grow its stock price in tandem 30%, the price needs to go to 66 (I'm using a beginning price of 51 since this is where DELL close out 1999-I know DELL's fiscal year is different).
66??? Not in a very long time. All the truck bays, new buildings, talk of 92 cents, analysts upgrades, feel good sounding words like tremendous and phenomenal, and market share, and DELL Knows How E-Works, couldn't move the stock in the past, but an IDC report and revenue warning topples the stock over 11%.
Feeling sick,
Kaka |
