"Gemstar-TV Guide complains Time Warner, through cable, will have a lock on electronic program guides, the opening screen on the emerging interactive-TV systems consumers use to navigate services."
I look forward to hearing from others about this, but I'll offer a thought.
I believe the wording of that comment is maybe a little strong. We know Time Warner has already blocked Gemstar's data feed on their cable properties. In response, Gemstar sent a letter to the FCC complaining that the action didn't comply with FCC rules. Before the FCC responded, TW allowed Gemstar's data feed to get to the consumers under the premise that it is a good-will gesture with the hope of working through the problem with Gemstar.
If the AOL/TW deal goes through, the idea many of us have had is that AOL will change TW's policy of not wanting the data to go through. That's because AOL has a relationship with Gemstar vis-a-vis its AOL-TV which licenses Gemstar's guide technology exclusively.
The reason I think the published statement is an overstatement is because I think it might be more accurate for Gemstar to think that TW has stripped the signal in the past, might choose to do so again. Gemstar might not want to have to go to court over this issue. Therefore, any way that Gemstar can head off the worst possible situation, one in which AOL sides with TW for whatever reason, Gemstar might not want to risk the merger.
Probably much more likely is that by complaining about the issue to the DOJ, they might get the DOJ to allow the merger to go through with the provision that Gemstar's guide data is not stripped.
In the end, and this is the most important part, if AOL/TW wants to use an interactive program guide, they'll have to license at least some of the technology from Gemstar based on everything I understand. If that guide is ad-capable, be assured that Gemstar will negotiate participation in the revenue.
Now that TV Guide is part of the deal, the company might have a responsive Investor Relations staff. It would definitely be worth running that published comment by the staff to see if it is accurate.
--Mike Buckley |
