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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: tekboy who wrote (28665)7/24/2000 11:40:30 PM
From: mauser96  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
SI has the third quarter at 27 cents, so 44 cents would be a huge upside surprise. Professional analysts usually fail to grasp the significance of tornados and underestimate. This is partly because they like to huddle together for the warmth of similar projections ( you don't get fired for having the same estimates as everybody else) and partly because many don't really understand tech tornados.
Sandisk is going to be in a whole series of mini tornados - digital camera, digital portable video, digital camcorders and before long cell phones set up to receive e-mail and data. These markets will show gradual growth until they hit the right price performance level, then everybody will want one. The newest digital cameras are as good as 35 mm in the common print sizes that non pros want, but they cost $800 or $900. They will get better, the price will decline, and then all at once the inflection point will be reached and the film camera will no longer be a viable alternative for most consumers. All this follows Moore's law and past history of tech developments, so the risk seems low even if SNDK isn't a full gorilla. Timing the tornados may be a lot trickier than the ultimate outcome so LTB&H is best here. Most of this is almost inevitable. Just as we went from 8 mm film movie cameras to magnetic tape camcorders we shall next move to digital camcorders using SNDK memory. It will be a decade before all this plays out.
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