Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, July 24th:
Dynamic Series:
SPX Long - TITAN 36 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 16.3 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 49.7 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 23.9 Million
******************************
Dynamic Fund Assets (new money) tend to "anticipate trend changes" moreso than the regular series as evidenced by the big jump in SPX Long TITAN assets and decrease in SPX Short TEMPEST Assets. This in spite of the fact that SPX closed down over 1% and broke critical support SPX 1,480 to close at SPX 1,464.29. Is this a one day false break or will lower old support SPX 1,440 come into play tomorrow? TITAN players may be one day early.
*********************************
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 559 Million
SPX Short- URSA 350 Million
NDX Long - OTC 3,240 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 108 Million
XAU Precious Metals 33.8 Million
Money Market 1,335 BILLION
**************************************
Regular Series tends to be more "reactive" to markets activity. SPX Short URSA at highest asset close since May 26th close when assets in short fund were at 398 Million and SPX closed at 1,378. One more down day could take us to 400 million level on the short side.
Money Market assets levels have also increased to levels not seen since June 22nd, 23rd timeframe. A little digging shows SPX closed at 1,452 and 1,441 respectively.
What does this small shread of evidence mean? We are within 2-3 days before a near term bottom and another smart rally is just around the corner if::
1) IIX does not have 2 closes below its 25 and 200 day MA (IIX 507-510). IIX closed at IIX 515.
2) DOW does not have 2 closes below DOW 10,605 with the second close below 10,336. One close below DOW 10,336 and all bets are off for any rally and this pre-requisite supercedes all other conditions. DOW closed at DOW 10,684.77
3)BKX has 2 closes below BKX 800 (50 day MA) with the second close below BKX 782 (25 day MA). BKX closed at BKX 819.68.
4)UTIL has 2 closes below UTIL 322 (25 day MA). UTIL closed at UTIL 328.66.
5) NDX breaks 50 day MA NDX 3,660 with a close below NDX 3,620 on 1 close (3,620 gives us elasticity below the stops getting run out on a close below the 50 day MA).Also above critical support NDX 3,580. We closed at NDX 3,790.62.
In short, the market is looking to put in a bottom most likely in the next two days. And unless the DOW diamond top comes into play and we begin a capitulation process below DOW 10,336 along with other above support parameters breaking - WE ARE GOING TO RALLY HARD INTO THE END OF JULY.
Look for some sort of intraday bottom and reversal either tomorrow or Wednesday (no later than Thursday intraday)off of oversold levels.
And just when you thought I was becoming a perma bear... a glimmer of light for the bulls??
Best Regards, J.T. |
