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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI]
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To: pat mudge who started this subject7/25/2000 1:42:21 PM
From: bvinnieb  Read Replies (6) of 3951
 
Hi Pat,

What is your take or anyone else on this message pulled off of clear
station?

From : smallcapmaven Jul 25 2000 12:48PM
Title : UNSUSTAINABLE growth (Short Recommendation)


Strong Sell...We think that the bloated fiber optics equipment companies that have benefited from first Quarter surge in the stock market, will be crashing soon. The surge in the broadband providers (ATHM, HSAC, NASC, SOFN, T…etc.) in the first quarter of 2000 gave this companies the cash to embark on aggressive and ambitious growth models… The fickle and poorly focused stockmarket of 2000 has made this growth unattainable. The market has told these broadband companies that cash liquidity going forward will be limited. Due to the sharp and sustained drop in the market value of the broadband providers their future growth and buildout WILL BE DIMINISHED…We feel that the growth multiples that the fiber optic equipment manufacturers have garnered peaked and will begin a sharp decline…The dryup of liquidity from the broadband suppliers will adversely affect the growth of the fiberoptic equipment manufacturers as early as the 3rd quarter of 2000 and drastically by the 4th quarter of 2000…This sets up a solid strategy for us of shorting the fiberoptic equipment companies (NT, JDSU/SDLI, GLW…etc.)and hedging that with a long position in the broadband providers…The providers are at a multi year low and the growth of the buildout WILL DECREASE if this anomaly does not correct itself!


Vinnie
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