AUTOHOME, Inc Message Board

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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.59

+0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (23868)	7/25/2000 7:41:27 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (1) of 29970

Any good TA people out there? (please, no MACD garbage Actually the TA is very simple, though its not pretty. 1) ATHM has broken down through a congestion area and is now at a 52 week low. There is no support below in recent memory. 2) All the time spent between 17 and 20 and the sharpness of the fall below those levels has created a lot of people who will be happy to sell when it returns to those levels. 3) The breakdown occured for solid fundamental reasons. Negative earnings and slower subscriber growth (slower than can even be explained by the modem shortage). 4) Every good news you can imagine ATHM having has come out and the market doesnt care. There isnt even the legitimate hope of a buyout. 5) The market is entering in my view a slow drift- the "summer rally" is essentially over. 6) The "generals" of the net stocks have rolled over and are now in downtrends (with the possible exception of YHOO). Sound bad? Yup. However, 15 is an important psychological barrier and the stock is clearly short term oversold (because of the obviousness of and good reasons behind the breakdown). I'm thinking it drops to the 15 area, bounces back to ~16 1/2 or 17, then turns down again to retest 15. How low can it go? It will keep going down until a) @home drastically increases subscriber growth (getting rid of Bell wouldnt hurt either) b) ATHM is so cheap that even the worst ATHM hater you can find thinks it's a buy. Ask around. I think that # is sub $12. Maybe even $10. As I said- one of the best shorts out there. Sad but true. Will ATHM be king in a couple of years? I sure hope so. But it ain't gonna happen in the next 2-3 months. Eric

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