Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 101.61

+2.8%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: astrophysics who wrote (47944)	7/26/2000 9:26:42 PM
From: astrophysics	Read Replies (4) of 93625

I'm considering buying leaps on the bus. Of course the problem with options is you have to choose the right one. Here are my thoughts. If anyone would care to correct my mistakes or offer comments on my tentative time line, I'd appreciate it. 2000Q3/4: P4 intro using RDRAM, most MM's making RDRAM 2001Q1: Legal issues resolved one way or another 2001Q2: Significant volumes of P4 and RDRAM; RMBS recognizes revenue of first P4 RDRAM sales 2001Q4: Rambus recognizes the revenue from enough RDRAM that RMBS's money machine is generally recognized. The Eagle soars. If that's the way things play out Jan 2002 calls look attractive. Strike of 85 for a premium of 35 seems like a reasonable play to me. However, I worry, that if there's some unexpected delay, then it's possible that those might not pan out to well. Unfortunately, the next expiration date isn't until Jan 2002. That seems to me to leave plenty of time. Unfortunately, the highest strike price I see for then is 65. With premiums ~45 and a stock price ~75, there's not a lot of leverage here. Maybe 50/50 between the two expiration dates. Thoughts? Thanks,

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