After Monday's market close we posted this analysis in archives MITA 3,970:
...<What does this small shread of evidence mean? We are within 2-3 days before a near term bottom and another smart rally is just around the corner if::
1) IIX does not have 2 closes below its 25 and 200 day MA (IIX 507-510). IIX closed at IIX 515.
2) DOW does not have 2 closes below DOW 10,605 with the second close below 10,336. One close below DOW 10,336 and all bets are off for any rally and this pre-requisite supercedes all other conditions. DOW closed at DOW 10,684.77
3)BKX has 2 closes below BKX 800 (50 day MA) with the second close below BKX 782 (25 day MA). BKX closed at BKX 819.68.
4)UTIL has 2 closes below UTIL 322 (25 day MA). UTIL closed at UTIL 328.66.
5) NDX breaks 50 day MA NDX 3,660 with a close below NDX 3,620 on 1 close (3,620 gives us elasticity below the stops getting run out on a close below the 50 day MA).Also above critical support NDX 3,580. We closed at NDX 3,790.62.
In short, the market is looking to put in a bottom most likely in the next two days. And unless the DOW diamond top comes into play and we begin a capitulation process below DOW 10,336 along with other above support parameters breaking - WE ARE GOING TO RALLY HARD INTO THE END OF JULY.
Look for some sort of intraday bottom and reversal either tomorrow or Wednesday (no later than Thursday intraday)off of oversold levels.
And just when you thought I was becoming a perma bear... a glimmer of light for the bulls??
Best Regards, J.T.>...
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It is imperative to note DOW break below DOW 10,336 supercedes all other other indicators and if ECI number comes in robust to head for cover on this break.
However, that said, if the number comes in benign we will have a hard tradable rally that will carry over into the end of next week. The market to get lathered up during the republican convention next week??
DOW closed at DOW 10,516.48 down 183(-1.7%). 5 day RSI closed below oversold 30 level at 25.46.
SPX closed at SPX 1,452.42 down 22.05 (-1.5%). 5 day RSI closed at oversold 29.60.
BKX closed at BKX 798.23 down 22.18 (-2.7%). 5 day RSI closed at lower midrange 39.36
UTIL closed at UTIL 325.01 down 4.83 (-1.5%). 5 day RSI closed at lower midrange 38.83.
NDX closed at NDX 3,818.28 down 47.11 (-1.2%). 5 day RSI closed at 41.92.
COMP closed at COMP 3,987.72 down 41.85 (-1%). 5 day RSI closed at 38.29.
IIX closed at IIX 513.54 down 6.4 (-1.2%). 5 day RSI closed at 43.81.
SOX closed at SOX 1,034.20 down 70.08 (-6.3%). 5 day RSI closed at oversold 25.31.
Best Regards, J.T. |
