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Technology Stocks : Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP)
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To: rupert1 who wrote (2565)7/27/2000 5:57:07 AM
From: rupert1   of 2908
 
Dain Rauscher Part 3

- Our revised revenue projections for 2000 are $51.4 million : my calculations based on 30% sequential for the next two quarters is $59 million, so evidently he is basing his on less than 30%:

- ...and $85.1 million for 2001 my calculations based on 30% sequential going forward is $169 millions for 2001

- Our revised EPS projections for 2000 and 2001 are ($0.52) and $0.10, vs. previous projections of ($0.56) and $0.07: you cannot crudely double his projections on the basis of 30% sequential growth because there is not a strict correlation between revenues and earnings: however, on 30%, the EPS would be substantially higher and profitability would be much earlier than the 3Q which anlaysts, as a group, are projecting:

- our 12-month price ...to $65 from $75. Our target is
based on a 20x multiple of estimated 2001 revenues Piper Jaffrey were using what they called a "conservative" 27x multiple. I suppose that Dain Rauchers is reflecting the deflation in sector valuations that has occured. However, inflation in valuations in this sector occurs every year in the 3Q and 4Q and 1Q. The Dain R estimate is very conservative both on account of its low estimate of growth and of its low multiple.

It is refreshing to see an analyst detail his thoughts on NETP and hopefully we will see a lot more of it and have a better informed discussion going forward.
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