Dave
I think (someone correct me if I am wrong) the lock-up period for the million shares are as follows:
After 90 days Alanex shareholders can sell up to 25%.
After one year 75% (total).
Any shares not sold within the one year time frame(which would be a minimum of 25%) must be kept for two years.
If you look closely at the deal, it really seams amazing. Alanex shareholders must be stupid or the are firm believers in AGPH. Since they must hold 75% of their shares for one year, their thinking must be that the stock is going to appreciate. Why else would they except shuch a deal????????? So Dave, if you were hoping to see a massive
sell-off, you will have to wait at least a year.
Sorry you and I do not view AGPH the same way. Although I never recommend stocks, I feel you are missing out on an exceptional opportunity!!!!!!!!!
I will list some factors one should consider before owning shares in AGPH.
1. I am wondering if you bothered to call your local treatment center for HIV to see how Viracept is performing (this is the most critical factor when owning such a stock). I do know this answer - NO!!!!!!
How do I know this answer????????? Because if you had made such a call, you would not be shorting this stock.
2. Viracept has the distinction of being the first antiretrovial therapy to be approved for marketing without an FDA advisory panel meeting. Now think of this for a moment. A little tiny BIOtech such as AGPH, with no big BIO partner like Chiron, Biogen etc.... to help with
clinical trials and FDA validation. This clearly demonstrates the strength of the efficacy, safety and tolerability of Viracept as a treatment for HIV infection.
3. Viracept was the first product to receive approval for both adult and pediatric use. Although Abbott's product (Norvir) is also approved for pediatric use, there is no argument that Viracept is the superior protease inhibitor. Given the strength of the product label and compelling market dynamics, I belive that Viracept will become the dominant protease inhibitor in this market. This is the most over looked factor on this thread.
4. Data on Viracept's label on resistance and cross-resistance demonstrates that Viracept is unigue in that "it appears" that patients who become resistant to Viracept do not develop resistance to other protease inhibitors. Consequently, Viracept will become the first line therapy among protease inhibitors.
5. After a year and a half, 95% of the HIV patients who have taken Viracept as first line PI therapy have undetectable levels of HIV.
Now you mention that Dr. Conant stated that "all you have to do is wait 6 or 9 months and they'll be a better drug'. Is this new drug going to show that 100% of the patients will be driven below detection???? I think not!!!!!! IMO, what the good doctor was refering to is that in 6 to 9 months there will be additional PIs on the market
(i.e. the second generation) and Viracept is consider a second generation PI. For the sake of argument, let assume that an HIV patient is taking Viracept and the drug is working fine. Would they be willing to switch drugs in mid-stream???????? Maybe you would, but certainly not me!!!!!!!!. Viracept will be way out of the starting gate before a drug that is equal in efficacy, safety and tolerability is on the market.
6. AGPH has an outstanding product pipeline. Thymitaq for the treatment of head, neck and liver cancer (currently undergoing phase II/III trials). Two other products are in phase I studies and an additional 7 projects are in development.
Dave, don't sleep to long (A'la Rip Van Winkle!!) on your decision
to cover your short position. You way wake-up finding out that you have lost the house, the car, and of course your "SHORTS".
Happy Investing!!!
Andrew
P.S.
You stated that you would volunteer for jury duty on the trial of AGPH vs UCSD. I think you would have been more suited for the O.J. murder trial, you know, ignoring evidence, non beliver in medical science etc........... |
