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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: faro who wrote (26105)	7/27/2000 1:46:26 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (1) of 42787

This is interesting. I did a similar study called "Is There a January Effect", where I looked at the monthly gains of the NYSE Index from 1969 through 1998. What I found was that there has been a very strong November-January "Effect" during those years. Between Nov-Jan the market recorded almost half of its annual gains. Then the monthly returns generally declined all the way to September (which was negative). There definitely does not appear to be any evidence of a "Summer Rally" that's any better than other seasons. Really, the evidence is much stronger for an "Early Winter Rally." Look at this past year and the year before, and at my barchart for 1969-1998: mathematicalanalysis.com I think going all the way back to 1915 in a study isn't necessarily helpful for investors today. Laws have changed, the economy has changed, communication has changed. In my analysis of the markets, you can see the effect of changes in the speed at which information is communicated over the years. Still, seasonal patterns do appear to exist, and it's certainly a very interesting topic. fuzzymath

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