Hi Andres-
I appreciate your posts (and your profile!). They offer a balance that is refreshing (IMO) here (The often skewed, even if hopeful, spin that is often put out seems counterproductive to wise investing/trading).
I agree with your assessment of the field, but would only question your converging on AMTX at this time.
And contrary to what others here have implied about those of us who are more critical than the norm here, I am neither short nor am I currently invested in any other xDSL technologies. I lost some money on AMTX and then more than made that back on the IO+NW spike up. But my continued hesitation is how the playing field will settle and who will make the big dollars.
Will it be the chip makers (TXN, ADI, MOT), the modem manufacturers (USRX, Siemens), the CLECs and LECs? And to the extent that companies like Amati, Aware, Globespan and Orckit are concerned, will the competition force them to play on other's terms?
Do you think Amati, for instance, got the license from ADI from a position of strength, given all the posturing ADI had about paying nothing or very little.
I understand from people in the industry (as I have reported here) that Amati asked ridiculous prices from some, by way of pre-payments (and not just royalties). Why would they do that to themselves, unless the approach was from an uncertainty about AMTX's future strength in the field, and then why?
If the trend in modems is to have software upgradeability (and I believe that it is, even with ADSL which can be tweaked and fine tuned to squeeze better cleaner rates), that will be done through chips like TI's C6X (and NOT MOT's CG). As I understand it, this means that C6X will be "non-standard". In fact it means that with fine tuning, non-standard may be (and in the future likely will be) much better than (the current) ANSI standard. Where will Amati's strength/leverage be then?
And as far as getting their "ransom" (to somewhat exaggerate the point, of course) from their "big" partners, I understand that they did not. If it turns out that they DID, then we will see this as a major upside to earnings next week.
So as an investment, will AMTX make the numbers and growth rates to justify it's anticipated (or even current) price? If so, how likely will that be, and where will Amati be if it doesn't?
And does the uncertainty justify the price at this point? Would someone "miss the boat" *overnight*, so to speak, or would buying into strength (after some sense of what Amati can sign $$) be another option?
If my posts seem more bearish than bullish, it is for two reasons:
1) to counter the unreasonable (IMO) hype and positive spin and rumour on this stock posted here, which HAS hurt some people.
2) because as an investor, I want to know BOTH sides of the story, but usually only find one here.
I'm of the opinion that SI threads should be like consumer's report vs. an advertisement, at least that is how it would benefit me.
All the above is not just rhetoric, Andreas, I am interested in your opinion.
Regards-
Steve
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