Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.73

+6.1%

3:59 PM EST

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From: Gottfried	7/27/2000 11:20:28 PM
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How many months before an expected SEMI orders top do the stocks begin to sell off? The answer requires us to guess at the SEMI orders top AND at the lead time of the stock decline. The past gives conflicting answers. geocities.com The orders top in Spring '96 was anticipated by price by over 6 months. The Fall '97 orders top was preceded by price by about 2 months. Cycle mavens will hasten to tell us THAT was a cycle aborted by the Asian flu and not at all normal. In fact, I don't have data for a 'normal' cycle. So, we're on our own. Maybe the present cycle is unlike any other? Gottfried

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