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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: Clappy who wrote (26639)7/28/2000 12:57:07 AM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
I'm glad to see you were only napping...

Hi Clappy,

Where've ya been! <gg>

As I stated in the post you cited, my involvement with the market is episodic. Since I believe we're in bear correction in the context of a secular bull, it seemed like a good time to take a breather.

To be more specific, a theoretical (classical) bear has three stages: denial, fear (of earnings declines) and capitulation. Separating the three sages can be some powerful rallies.

Now theory is nice, but practice always has a few wrinkles to catch the unwary. If I had to guess, I'd say we may be near the beginning of stage two. We'll see.

As I've mentioned in previous posts on this thread, all of this volatility should be viewed as an opportunity to build the portfolio of one's dreams. If I'm right about the secular bull, after the capitulation stage we'll see a market that'll send the permabears into deep hibernation.

For myself, I'm still taking that "breather". I've made a little pocket change off CREE and JDSU options recently, but only something major (like Spinco) was able to get me to logon SI. A very interesting high stakes game that Q and the GSM crowd are playing. I suspect that a key to the outcome of the game will be its duration. Anyway, fun to watch and place side bets.

Next week I'm off to the red canyons of southern Utah.

C-ya in September.

lurqer
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