Peter - I agree. The last time CLPA hit the UPC symbol the short position was smaller and the stock was trading in the 50s. I heard that a buy in was on the cards and immediately a whole batch of negative press appeared in street.com, Bloomberg, etc. Luckily for them, that was also the beginning of the biotech slide in early March, and they avoided getting spanked. They must have shorted very heavily along the slide to make up for their heavy shorting in single digits. Hence we now see the UPC again in the high 20s and 7.4M shares short (in March there were 5.5M short.
I certainly have to admit I'm sold on CLPA's technology. As a medical researcher I've delved deeply into the science, and as an investor of two years that has been spanked a few times, I've certainly questioned the science and clinical data at times. But try as I might, I simply cannot find a weakness. They recently updatedthe science page on their web site (http://www.cellpathways.com/3_RESEARCH/index.html) and the first full length paper on the mechanism of action of their compounds came out July 1st in Cancer Research, and another has been submitted. I know you have stood on the sidelines here, which is fine. Might be worth a small wager though..*wink*. I'd be happy to tell you more if you feel so inclined (trav@ragingbull.com). The links section on the Raging Bull board is also jammed with good stuff. Upon approval (my best guess- late August), I doubt there will be a huge pop. More of a steady rise as analysts jump in and their data on sporadic polyps should be out later (big revenue market). Off-label sales in prostate are also likely to be significant, as they have both patient advocacy groups clamoring and extensive contacts within the clinical world. They will also start selling Aventis' nilandron in September, and plan to use their sales force to sell other pharma drugs. All part of building a broad cancer franchise. |
