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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 234.70-1.2%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (106649)7/28/2000 4:37:31 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
Hi all; Is it time for old bears to drop by and gloat? Nearly one year ago, I posted predictions for the following 18 months worth of AMZN revenues. These were done using a simple mathematical technique, but it didn't work out too badly. Here's the results so far (thousands of dollars):

Period  Prediction    Actual    Error
3Q99    $356579      $355777      0%
4Q99     508314       676042    -33%
1Q00     522684       573889     -9%
2Q00     503003       577876    -14%
3Q00     520605     
4Q00     705623


"The AMZN story is that the current losses are of no great importance, and that they are instead building a market. What is important, instead, is the growth rate in the revenue of the company. I, and most of the other shorts on this thread, believe that the growth of AMZN is a lot closer to being finished than the longs, and that the recent quarter's results are supportive of our belief. There has been some suggestion on this thread that AMZN's recent quarter's results were not really comparable to the previous quarter's reseults due to seasonality. The purpose of this
note is to analyze AMZN's revenue numbers with this caveat in mind. In other words, I am going to look at the revenue series in ways that will eliminate seasonality effects." #reply-10755819

It looks like I was a little low, but not too shabby considering that AMZN was growing at 171% year over year at the time I made the post. My biggest error was when they did all the Christmas specials in 4Q99.

-- Carl
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