Hi Stan,
There has been some strong buying in XYBR. My friends who are technical experts have been telling me that that it is ready to fly again. My own style has been to keep most and do very little trading on XYBR. It's one of those all or nothing things for me. Admittedly, I would like to have been as smart as some of the geniuses who claim to have called the top. I got in at $1 and under so at least I'm half a genius. (That's sort of like being half-arsed or half-baked.) If the product works and sells, then I will make a huge amount on it. If it doesn't, then I get a tax write-off. For now, I see the risk reward ratio as positive on XYBR. It could very well trade down to 4-5 level. OR it could go back to 30 if things work out. I like that type of odds. Is it a guarantee or a lock? Of course not.
This strategy has worked for me in this type of company. I diversify. I have about 30-40 positions of varying types and with different strategies for each. I've been long, short, day traded, minute traded, long term held, written puts, covered calls, etc. I believe if one is going to be successful one should keep an open mind on all strategies.
XYBR needs to show real revenue growth and/or the direct benefits of a major interrelationship with "the big player" whether that be IBM, Sony or another. Management needs to support the stock by not selling any of their holdings and, in fact, buying back when the price is down. It doesn't make any sense to delude oneself that everything is rosy when it isn't.
Don't get me wrong. I think there is a bright future for the wearable computer and the PC in general. Despite the frustrations of the operating system, I think the reality of the Palm and cellphone WAP market has shown that these things have limited uses. They are successful products but they are not true computers and will not replace multi-function, multi-tasking computers. That's why I am so hot on MCOM as both a long term holding and an incredible trading vehicle. Look at the swings in it. You can make a fortune both ways on it but the trend now is up with the rollout in place. With MCOM, you will have real wireless computing and you can use your Palm with it at DSL speeds.
XYBR is one puzzle piece away from a major success. I believe that management needs to bite the bullet and make the tough decisions now. That is, will sales really support a major league capitalization? I can't answer that question. Only they can. If they do not have the resources to answer that question affirmatively, they need to put themselves up for sale. It will mean that they give up control which is always difficult in an entrepeneurial venture.
BTW - did you see my prior post on the attorney seeking information about Bloomberg and Evans? Apparently, there are others who see some linkage between timing of "news" releases and trading activities. This should be very interesting as it plays out. As I've said all along, the fact that someone doesn't have a position does not insulate that person from securities law violations if a direct or indirect connection can be established to those who trade on selective disclosure of "news", even old news repackaged as part of a manipulative scheme.
As far as GMGC goes, I look at it like a XYBR holding. They have earnings and conference call coming up. The market has not been good lately to this type of venture. Sentiment will change. It could easily go up to its high. I wouldn't trade it. It could also drift down. Again, it shouldn't be more than a percentage of a portfolio that you are prepared to lose.
Good luck,
RR |
