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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 200.98+1.4%Dec 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: niceguy767 who wrote (2648)7/28/2000 11:37:42 AM
From: AK2004Read Replies (1) of 275872
 
Niceguy

Re: no slowdown in flash this year

agreed but as availability would get better (and it is already getting somewhat better) the GM on the increasing flash revenue would likely to decrease

Re: ASP's are rising as the K6 is replaced by the Athy...

agreed but while GMs are going up the reduction of revenue due to loss of k6 would reduce the positive effect.

for example: in the universe with no price changes let say amd is moving from split of 50/50 to all k7s and let say that the price of k6 is 1/3 of k7 then the total revenue would move from (.5 + .33*.5)*pk7=.665*pk7 to 1*pk7. Hence the increase would be 50% rather than 100%.

The prices of k7 are bound to go down.

Having said that annual eps of $5/share with farther gains in market share of high end is not bad at all. At Intel PE that would be $250/share :-))

Regards
-Albert
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