Niceguy - RE: "Comment: Might need the gain on sale of Communications division to get to $1.5 billion after tax, but if successful in shipping 3.6 and 7.2 million Athys in Q3 and Q4 respectively and if flash profit contribution remains stable (and management implied yesterday it will) then $9.00 after tax remains attainable...I have raised my eps range from $4.00 to $7.00 (since January) to $7.00 to $10.00 in light of managements forward guidance yesterday!!!"
I think your $9 after tax estimate it WAY too high. I saw you gave this reply to Pravin when he asked how you got your numbers -
"Basically, since Q3, earnings after stripping out the Ireland property in Q1, correlate fairly strongly with the assumption that pre-tax eps increases at a rate of about $0.10 per incremental 100,000 Athys...If, true, and flash continues to contribute at same rate, which assumption, management indicates is safe, and if Athy ASPS remain fairly constant through Q3 and Q4 (and I don't see why not given the T-Bird thrust we are about to witness), then 1.8 and 3.6 million Athys will result in before tax eps increments of about $1.80 ($1.25 after tax )in Q3 and $5.40 ($3.75 after tax) in Q4"
I don't know if you heard the Q2 CC, but AMD said they 3.6M and 7.2M "seventh generation processors," NOT Athlons. By saying seventh gen, AMD is including Durons. While OVERALL ASPs will go up as AMD ships more and more seventh gen processors, seventh gen ASPS will go DOWN as Durons become a higher % of the overall seventh gen processor mix.
I think you should take this into consideration when you calculate your numbers. |
