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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: Boplicity who wrote (3695)7/28/2000 5:43:10 PM
From: syborg  Read Replies (2) of 6974
 
The situation today is very different then we saw in the spring. Back then we had investors rolling the dice with margin and shares had to be sold at market to cover the calls. This led to a frenzy of selling which fed on itself. Very similar to the program trading problems we faced before in the past.

Siebel is in the unique position of being a leader in their segment that is growing both revenue and profit. The segment itself is growing at least 50% compounded so a slow down in growth should not be expected. Lets not even get into the competition debate since their is no real competition out there shipping product.

Looking at volume by price is one of my favorite charts available at bigcharts.com. It may not be scientific, but I feel it gives me an indication of where the "herd" cost basis is. Over the past year there has been the most volume around 135. 150 presented a big problem as it is the one hole in the "bell curve" around 135. However, strong support was building around $160 which market jitters blew through the bottom of. If I am right then $135 is the line in the sand. A break below that is really oversold provide investors have the fortitude to hang in there.

I for one am putting more money into the stock at these levels. Comments are appreciated.
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