The new Commitment of Traders report was released by the feds today (it comes out every two weeks) ...
... bottom line (for the S&P 500 futures): the commercials increased their short number of contracts from 44,272 to 53,251 from two weeks ago ...
At the same time, small traders increased their long number of contracts from 36,908 to 40,665 from two weeks ago.
... a single S&P 500 futures contract has a margin requirement of $29,250 ... so, the commercials have 'bet' $29,250 X 53,251 = $1,557,591,750 on the 'short' side, by far, the largest 'short' position they have ever held in the S&P 500.
... that is why I bought a 'put' on the December S&P 500 futures this past Tuesday ...
... sometimes, the commercials are wrong, but rarely when the small investor is dead set in opposition to them, as they have been since mid-May ...
Attached chart ...
marketpit.com
I have been bearish on the overall market since January, but never have I been this bearish. Indeed, I may be wrong, and I am certainly only one person with my own personal analysis, but it looks to me like equities are in serious trouble.
As far as SUNW is concerned, should the market really tank, my opinion is that SUNW will not get hurt nearly as much as most high P/E tech stocks ... but it may still get hurt a bunch (again, my opinion).
Ken Wilson |
