If you're still around
Not really, but I'll "pop in" until Monday to get a reading on Q's joint venture.
"secular bull" ... what does it mean?
Well your right, it doesn't refer to the religious nature of bovines. The following is JMO and should be read on a FWIW basis. While Wall Street frequently has its own definition of terms, in this case the usage keys upon the long time duration meaning of the term - e.g. a secular change is one that endures for a long time.
Because we live in an era with a rapid population increase, significant technological innovation and long term inflation, we expect the price of stocks to trend upward. Scrutiny of a chart of say the Dow (Industrials) for the 20th century confirms this trend. But it also reveals that progress upward is anything but steady.
Since the overall trend is up, the up (bull) moves tend to last longer and cover more territory (price), but are punctuated by sharp downward (bear) reversals. The term "secular bull" is used to designate those major long term upward moves. As an example consider the major bull move that began in August '82 and has continued until the present (IMO). Surely, it has briefly paused several times - '87 was particularly notable. But the market has not stalled for any extended period (say four years or more) any time since '82.
The brief pauses like say '94 are referred to as bear markets within a secular bull context. These are not to be confused with secular bear markets which separate secular bull markets. The last secular bear we had was during the '70's and ended in '82 with the beginning of the current secular bull.
So the difference between a bull (or bear) and a secular bull (or bear) is a matter of time - i.e. how long do they last. While the idea is simple the implications are profound. Consider a well renown strategy - LTB&H (Long Term Buy and Hold). During a secular bull this is one of the best strategies available. Many of the largest fortunes made in Wall Street have been made using this strategy in a secular bull market.
Unfortunately LTB&H is about the worst strategy for a secular bear. So consider what happens. During the long period (multi-decade) of a secular bull, investors are trained to "hang in there". So at the end of the secular bull, they (following their training) behave in their own worst interest. If the history of the 20th century is any guide, very few of the "leading companies" of one secular bull will be among the leaders of the next secular bull. And recall that even if one is so lucky as to pick the very few companies that will "come back", a long time will pass. For the major secular bear of the last century, the one that began in '29, one had to wait until the '50s. Given the timescale of a human life, that's just too long.
The discussion in the previous paragraph is why I was careful in my choice of words in the post to which you responded. Anytime the bear comes out of its den, it behoves one to carefully analyze the market and decide - is this a correction or a secular change? If you find the subject interesting and want to consider some demographic reasons for secular bull and bear markets, you might consider the work of H. Dent:
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