Harry,
I have to agree with you about JD's recent success or lack there of. I have a portfolio put together of his 2000 WSW picks and it is scary. Check this out:
Symbol Last Shares Value Paid Gain
RAD $4 3/16 2,247 $9,409.31 11.125 -$15,588.56 -62.36%
T $30 5/8 211 $6,461.88 50 13/16 -$4,259.56 -39.73%
BFT $22 3/8 401 $8,972.38 26 11/16 -$1,729.31 -16.16%
CPQ $28 396 $11,088.00 27 1/16 $371.25 +3.46%
CCR $35 11/16 424 $15,131.50 $25.25 $4,425.50 +41.34%
DEO $34 5/8 335 $11,599.38 $32.00 $879.38 +8.20
HLT $9 3/8 1,120 $10,500.00 $9 9/16 -$210.00 -1.96%
JCP $16 1/2 537 $8,860.50 $19 15/16 -$1,845.94 -17.24%
Net Portfolio Balance: $82,022.94 -$17,957.25 -17.96% YTD
As I look over his results YTD it appears that JD seriously under estimated the impact of the RAD reorganization and earnings restatements. While I do believe that the worst is behind Rite Aid in hindsight it was a serious mistake to purchase them at $11.125 in December with this black cloud hanging over their heads. What bothers me most about this pick is that JD was recommending their purchase when the stock was in the $20s.
AT&T is one of his picks that fooled me. I thought that the purchase of Media One and other cable assets by AT&T was a stroke of genius and that it would perform well this year. Unfortunately, it has taken a long time for these acquisitions to materialize in the form of revenue. I feel that there are better days ahead with them.
Bally Total Fitness is one stock that I don't think Wall Street understands. While it is very profitable I think Wall Street is always waiting for some form of domestic slowdown to impact earnings to take them down. It hasn't happened so far but this 'wait and see' attitude causes the stock to linger.
Compaq has continued to waffle but I believe that they realize that if they don't shift gears that Dell will blow right by them into 1st place in the PC market. The Street is getting a little impatient. It was only moved up 3.46% YTD.
Countrywide Credit has been JD's only home run this year. I believe this is due to their hints that they are looking to be bought out. But being up 41.34% for the year is still impressive.
Diageo has improved lately to finally be in the plus column for JD. Here is another story about them contemplating splitting up their business which has caused a surge as of late.
Hilton is another stock that just can't seem to enjoy much success this year. While it surged a little last month it has since returned where it started the year.
J.C. Penney is one stock that I really can't understand JD's affection for. IMHO, there are much better retail plays out there in spite of their Internet operations. It looks like Wall Street agrees. Down -17.24% for the year.
So bottom line is that John Dessauers' WSW Net Portfolio Balance is $82,022.94 -$17,957.25 -17.96% YTD as of 7/28/00 (Plus or minus $20.00). I don't think this is going to earn him a return trip to see Rukeyser in December at this rate. I wonder how the other contestants are faring?
Cheers,
Steve |
