JDN. I have not made myself clear. The commercials are the players that determine the direction of our financial markets. They are the big boys with the big bucks.
Just to be included in the Commitment of Traders statistics, (which are produced by our federal government every two weeks) an individual commercial hedger has to hold a minimum of 2,000 contracts. In the S&P 500 futures, that means they must have a minimum bet (or commitment, if you will) of 2,000 X $29,250.00 or $58.5 million dollars on the line.
They have been short since some time in May, and every two weeks since then, they have increased their short positions (to the point where they are now net short 53,251 individual contracts). 53,251 X $29,250.00 or $1.558 billion. This is by far, the shortest that they have ever been in the S&P.
They are also almost never wrong, they are trend enders ... and they are expecting a big break in the market ... BIG.
If you will private mail me a fax #, I will send you the S&P 500 futures chart for the last four years. Activities of the commercials, the small trader and the public are clearly shown. You will be able to judge for yourself what kind of changes have taken place when the commercials are leaning heavily in one dirtion, and the general public in the opposite (especially when the positions are extreme).
My analysis and opinions are my own, and I am responsible for them to myself only. You should make your own decisions. I am not a financial professional or licensed advisor.
But my analysis says that we are going to have a major break sometime between now and early December. A major break to me would be 30% plus on all the major indexes.
I may be wrong, but that is what I think.
Ken Wilson |
