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Technology Stocks : ADC Telecommunications

ADCT 4.110

+5.1%

Feb 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (877)	7/29/2000 6:46:28 PM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (1) of 1944

ADCT has held the 50 DMA since October, 1999. Even during the crushing March debacle it continued to climb. During the April-May selloff, it slightly breached its 50 DMA and then continued to climb to new highs. As an investor in ADCT, breaking the 50 & 100 DMA's and reaching the 200 DMA at this juncture would tell me something is amiss from an earnings or revenue viewpoint, or from a forward looking statement viewpoint regarding future growth. I would say to myself, why now? Why didn't it crumble to its 200 DMA average in March, April or May when many other bell weather tech stocks did? Even in the 600 point drop in Naz these past 2 weeks down to the 3650 level, ADCT continued to make new highs on a daily basis through that. Although it dropped 5 points on Friday, it is still nicely above its 50 DMA. So even if Naz continues its downward viscious slide I would expect ADCT to perform in a similar behavior as during March-May. If it reached its 200 DMA for some reason, this would create tremendous overhead resistance and it would indicate to me this onward steady move upward was one huge head fake and an enormous amount of distribution was going on in the face of higher lows and higher highs. It would tell me at this time the growth story has changed for ADCT. That would lead to dead money and time to look elsewhere for the better story. Each stock has a story. The charts just reflect that story during a period of time. A change in the chart pattern all of a sudden would tell me the story has changed for the worse. I hope this makes sense but that's how I see it. What it will do, who knows? I'm not making any predictions. All JMHO. Good luck. jmanvegas

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