Re: very very bearish
Brinker is following a model which has determined that equities are in a bear market. Yet, he remains 40% Long in his recommended equity allocation and is currently Long the QQQ's, stop @ 84. If that's all you knew about his market opinion, you might question just how bearish he is, but, as you have noted, his rhetoric is quite bearish as it has been for some time, even when he was 100% Long equities. He does not allow for his model to be wrong. What worked in the 1990's must work now. Right?
Regarding V's posts a few days ago about the little guy being screwed by the houses, I have some thoughts. It seems that over the past 3-4 years, the market and in particular the NASDAQ is simply decimated in terms of price over very short periods of time. Stocks drop 20% or more in a few days as though the sellers have absolutely no regard for the price they are getting for their stocks, they just want out, at any price. I think most "little guys" care a lot about the prices they get for their stock and unless forced to do so, simply will not get robbed. So who is dumping?
My theory, based only on speculation and opinion, not any facts and certainly not any research on my part, is that the slew of twenty and thirty something MBA's who control hundreds of millions in other people's assets and who only earned said position by virtue of being in the right place (securities business) at the right time (bull market) are the ones who are so carelessly dumping stocks. It's not their money so what the hell to they care what they get for 10,000 shares of QCOM or RMBS? What is important to them and their careers is only that they hold no QCOM or RMBS should anyone ask in the furry of a bear market. Of course, they will also be the block trades buying all they can as both stocks tick into new high territory when it will only be important that both stocks are held by their fund, should anyone ask in the furry of NASDAQ new highs.
If my theory is right and they are the ones we are bidding against, it should prove to be a very profitable engagement.
A |
