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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: James Clarke who wrote (11028)7/30/2000 11:16:49 AM
From: Michael Burry1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 78516
 
OK, so it's contrarian, but it is also one of the most visible, over-analyzed stocks by pros and amateurs alike. Where's my advantage in understanding Amazon.com? Quest for Value's an interesting book, but I still don't see the margin of safety in an option, at least as I define a margin of safety. More likely, a diversified portfolio of these sorts of companies may indeed provide the few rockets that offset or more than offset the ones that go to zero. So you then have a margin of safety in the portfolio. But I don't see the margin of safety in an individual Z, precisely because you are projecting based on many assumptions that have no fundamental basis in past reality, and because you do not have infinite time for the security to come around - after all, it is an option in that regard. And in Amazon.com's case, a debt-laden one at that.

Mike
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