From semibiznews:
semibiznews.com
Chip analysts and researchers who gathered for the Robertson Stephens meeting this
week in "Baghdad by the Bay" were their usual bullish selves and pooh-poohed any
predictions of an industry downturn.
Most of them went along with Sue Billat, Robertson Stephens analyst who "just didn't see any
signs of a downturn yet." She predicted the "case is very strong that we will have a very healthy
year in 2001 and probably a good 2002 as well."
Earlier in July, Salomon Smith Barney analyst John Joseph had pointed out the large number of
fabs under construction and said the industry had reached the peak of its upturn and was poised to
begin its periodic descent. As a result, the stock market took a big hit, but most of the analysts
this week challenged Joseph's outlook.
Billat predicted that demand will remain strong enough to soak up all of the new capacity. "We are
still in the first half of a major up cycle," she maintains. And as far as DRAMs are concerned, the
current shortage could last through the end of 2002, figures Jim Handy, Dataquest's memory
analyst.
Other factors are keeping the market in check, Billat added, especially the big backlog in
lithography tools. She said the average delay between ordering a system to its delivery runs more
than a year for 248-nanometer lithography systems. But, she acknowledged, "if the chip
companies could get all the litho tools they wanted, then we would probably end up with a huge
oversupply," she said.
But as far as I'm concerned, these chip analysts are all "whistling Dixie." |
