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Biotech / Medical : AVAX Technologies, AVXT- NASDAQ

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Mar 6 3:00 PM EST

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To: .Trev who wrote (131)	7/30/2000 4:07:51 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) of 142

Trev .... I don't know squat about biotechs .... but so what ..... <g> just my opinion .... (1) Your sitting on the worlds best melanoma therapy ... for stage 3 and later ... Hands down .... nothing else remotely close (2) Within 6 months you will see Americans going to Australia for treatment ... i.e. patients will vote with their feet .... (3) A little thereafter you might see Americans going to Germany for the same treatment. Problem is: I know Australia will allow it .... but don't know if Germany will (4) Most importantly and the reason I am here. Understand .... Give 100 women with late stage Ovarian cancer any combination of chemo drugs you want .... i.e. primarily Taxol ... and it will NOT HELP 75 of them ... i.e. there is a good chance they will die .... O-VAX was given to 10 women for which 2 rounds of chemo failed .... i.e. Taxol failed Of the 10 .... 7 died 3 lived I know that sounds piss poor .... And it is ..... Nonetheless .... NOTHING ELSE and I mean NOTHING ELSE could have saved those 3 women .... If chemo can save 25 out of 100 women .... and O-Vax can save (30% * 75)= 22 then potentially we are talking about saving 47 women out of each 100 .... versus the current save rate ... We'll have a real handle on this in about 10 months. i.e. P2 trial involving 400 women will be very far along .... if the 30% holds up - think in terms of a market cap on the order of $5 billion .... (5) Given all this - why is avxt ignored .... The concept of a custom made vaccine doesn't seem practical ... i.e. too expense for the masses and therefore you can't make alot of money ... This concept will PREVAIL right up to the point that one of these thinkers has late stage melanoma or ovarian .... then the intractable law of the INELASTICITY OF PRICE with respect to life will take hold ... moreover, the other intractable law .... higher volume leads to a backfill of better (i.e. cheaper ) technologies to accomplish the same task .... will ALSO kick in .... (6) Finally, whats this gene thingie I posted about ..? Think of you, an automobile and some place you are trying to get to. Our gene thingie is analagous to the automobile. I don't know the long term implications of this ... and neither does anybody else .... but I'd rather have it ... as opposed to not have it.. btw - you'd be much better off reading Yahoo than hanging here .... again - all of the above is just my opinion .... regards, John McCarthy

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