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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon

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To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (553)	7/30/2000 10:31:31 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) of 811

I didn't just pick a couple of dates, I picked a year from Friday, the last day of trading before today. That isn't arbitrary. I'm not trying to screw around with numbers, I'm just saying if you bought a year ago you now have 100% for your investment. What it did in the meantime, flying up to 27 had a lot to do with WEBM and the B2B madness. It was not sustainable and it had little or nothing to do with the fundamental value of the company. It was dependant on the madness of crowds. The problem is that having held through it you feel like you lost, when in actuality you have made money if you bought a year ago. Obviously you have been in longer and you don't have that kind of return. But you might notice that the entire market for tech tends to swoon in the summer so it makes sense to measure the performance of the stock from summer to summer. If we were in April it would have made more sense to measure April to April. Or November to November. A year for a long term investor is a good time frame to measure performance. Obviously if we put a five year on it, it is a completely different story....correct? One of the reasons that you compare Q1 to Q1 when discussing financials is that the software industry is subject to seasonal changes. It would be unfair to judge the company from sequencial Q to Q that has seasonal buying pressures. Like-wise tech stocks are subject to seasonal fluctuation and total market fluctuation. Right now we are the lows for both. It is only fair to measure the return on the stock price back to the same time period last year. Do you understand? I imagine that even with the latest swoon the stock is trading a lot higher than where some of the old ODIS shareholders finally gave up and threw in the towel. I swear that lately all I've had to do to make a stock rise was to sell it. I can understand the resentment someone might have for a company that you hold onto for years, sell at a loss and then the damned thing rises to ridiculous heights and then plunges. I'd be cheering it down as well.

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