"TA for Boneheads" update. See my previous posts for definitions, caveats, etc. Data from market close, Friday 7/18/00. Everything here is my opinion only....pretty valuable, actually...my opinion and 6 bucks will get you two shares of IONN or about 1 share of OMKT, a 90% savings over previous high prices!
No surprise that most charts turned negative last week. The surprise is that it wasn't last week but the PREVIOUS week that many sell signals were generated. If not outright sell signals, at least many stocks were in treacherous short term overbought areas; JNIC and LPTH being two great examples.
So what's a conservative position trader to do this week?
Hopefully we're in a strong cash position, having already liquidated or lightened up on virtually every issue. Thursday and Friday may have provided "spike" opportunities for bottomfishers in NOK, NTRO, and LPTH (among others), but the shortterm trends are down and are not likely to solidly reverse without at least a few days of strength (with some exceptions).
Below is my usual list; almost every stock is termed "down" which indicates the shortterm trend, "OS" means oversold and likely to reverse soon, the next series of numbers are "RBOP"s (resistance/breakout points) which can double as support points when a stock is moving down. Again, I have used these RBOPs fairly successfully as entry/exit points (along with a healthy dose of common sense). I also use sell stops on many issues, especially when I have to be away. Without further ado (adeaux? adieux?), here we go and please don't forget to critique, criticize, or (God forbid) compliment!
A-down, near OS, RBOP 40
AETH-down, broke support at 165, RBOPs at 150, 140, 110-130
ADAP-down, near OS, RBOPs at 30, 20
ADIC-down, trendline support at 13, RBOP at 11
ANAD-down, near OS, RBOPs at 24, 19
ADSX-UP, buy at 3, RBOPs at 4, 6, 10
AOL-down, trendline support at 53 1/2, near OS, RBOPs at 55, 58, 64
ARTT-down, near OS, RBOP at 8
ATHM-down, near OS, no chart support
ATML-OS, buy at 30, RBOPs at 35, 41
CICI-down but turning positive, RBOP at 5
CNQR-down, OS, now at 3 1/2 (52 wk low)
CNXT-down, near OS, must hold 30
COVD-down, near OS, possible double bottom at 15-16
CS-down, broke uptrend line at 28, RBOPs at 24, 20
CSCO-down, broke uptrend line at 67, RBOPs at 60, 50
CTXS-down, near OS, no chart support
DISH-down, RBOPs at 35, 31
DITC-down, near OS, RBOPs at 59, 50, 45
EGAN-down, near OS, no chart support
ELON-OS, RBOPs at 30, 20
ENGA-UP, buy at 10, RBOPs ar 15, 17, 21
EXDS-down, RBOPs at 42, 37, 30
FBCE-down, RBOPs at 7, 6, 5, 4 1/2, 3
FNSR-neutral, buy at 24 (trendline support), sell at 22, RBOPs at 21, 20, 35
GBLX-down, near OS, RBOPs at 24-25, 20
HLIT-down, RBOP at 21-22
HLTH-down, near OS, RBOP at 12 1/2
IATV-down, RBOPs at 14, 12
IFCI-down, near OS, RBOPs at 17, 15, 13
IFMX-down, near OS, new 52 wk low, no chart support
IMNX-down, near OS, RBOPs at 45, 39, 30-35
INPH-down, near OS, RBOP at 13
INSP-down, near OS, RBOPs at 30, 26, 21, 13
IONN-sleeping with the fishes
ISLD-down, near OS, RBOPs at 26, 20
JDSU-down, RBOPs at 115, 108, 96
JNIC-down, RBOPs at 40, 35, 30, 26
LCOS-down, RBOPs at 56, 53, 50, 45
LPTH-down, RBOPs at 29, 25, 20, 14, 10
LQID-down, RBOPs at 8, 7, 6
LRCX-neutral with a weak buy at 27 (trendline support), RBOPs at 30, 35, 40
LU-down, near OS, no chart support
METHA-down, RBOPs at 37 35, 32
MMPT-down, RBOP at 10
MOT-down, RBOPs at 33, 29
MSFT-UP, buy at 69, major RBOP at 83
NBCI-down, near OS, no chart support
NETP-down, near OS, RBOP at 10
NOK-down, RBOPs at 40, 35, 30
NT-down, RBOPs at 73, 70, 65, 58, 55
NUAN-UP, RBOPs at 135, 148
NTRO-down, near OS, RBOPs at 49, 40, 30, 25
NXTL-down, RBOPs at 54, 51, 47, 41, 38
OMKT-OS, weak buy at 6 1/2-6 3/4
PALM-down but beginning to turn positive, weak buy at 27
PSFT-down, RBOPs at 19, 18
PSIX-down, near OS, RBOP at 16
PUMA-down, near OS, weak buy at 19
QCOM-down, near OS, RBOPs at 63, 59, 53
RSAS-down, near OS, RBOPs at 58, 51, 42
SBAS-down, near OS, RBOPs at 7 3/4, 7, 6
SCMR-down, broke trendline support at 125, RBOPs at 110, 100, 90
SCON-down, OS, RBOPs at 19, 13
SVNX-down, RBOP at 30
TFSM-down, OS, weak buy
TGNT-down, OS, weak buy at 19, no chart support below 19
VNTR-down, OS, weak buy
WCAP-down, RBOPs at 12, 9
WCOM-down, OS, RBOP at 36
WFII-down, RBOPs at 64, 60, 53
WRLS-down, RBOPs at 13, 11, 8
Note: for RBOPs ABOVE current prices, refer to previous "Bonehead" posts.
Strategy: I intend to make small selective purchases of profitable (but OverSold), high quality, high growth companies, at (or near) RBOPs while maintaining close stops. Good candidates include (but are not limited to) MSFT, AOL, JNIC, FNSR, QCOM, GBLX, ADAP, and NTRO. Purchases will increase and extend to other issues based upon individual strength. No significant losses will be tolerated and any profits will be protected by trailing stops. I believe we will be in a sideways-to-down market at least until employment data on Friday, 8/4/00, and perhaps through most of August.
Don't fight the tape; the overall bias continues to be to the downside until the market itself says differently!
Regards and Success To All, Mark |
