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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: wonk who wrote (7829)7/31/2000 2:04:41 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
Hi ww,

I just checked up on WTC, that was the last post we've seen from him. Guess somebody should have responded. <w> It was a great post, as you say, and very perceptive.

In the mid '80's, the Japanese decided to create a PON in Tsukuba City for the scientific elite. Before the project was finally abandoned, average cost per residence served was US $500K. Today, best estimates of cost per residence passed on PON systems hovers around the $5,000 level on average in the US, exclusive of CPE opto-electronics. IMHO, while we have seen a price performance improvement of two orders of magnitude in about 15 years, we will necessarily need another 5-8 years and at least another order of magnitude reduction in cost before PON schemes are a viable economic option in the last mile. Cable modems and xDSL are going to be the only game in residential broadband for the foreseeable future. Even small businesses will be vastly underserved by fiber optic networks, with the present penetration rate of 0.3% of small businesses (less than 100 employees) rising to only 0.5% by 2005, according to research recently conducted by Communications Industry Researchers. Leaving plenty of opportunity for broadband wireless solutions. :)

Best, Ray
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